I do not think I am an unintelligent person, but this forecast and all the wobbly potentialities has my head spinning. So much back and forth with completely different kinds of precipitation all over the place. I no longer have any idea what to rule in or out.
Be ready for extreme cold. Ice accumulation on utility lines may become so heavy that lines snap. Water lines may break. Gas lines may break. Delivery services may go offline. Be ready to keep animals inside, even for potty. Have tons of blankets and alternate sources of heat and electricity.
Take care. This is gonna catch a lot of people off guard, unfortunately. 🩷
@kimlockhartga This is part of what climate change is doing to us. It's making everything more difficult to predict.
Heat in a fluid (like a glass of water, or the atmosphere of a planet) is the energy of motion--all the particles are moving around, bouncing off of each other--faster and more energetically when there's more "heat". As you raise the temperature, the result gets more turbulent and more chaotic. The systems and trends we've been observing for a hundred years to create modern weather modelling are getting through out the window, because with a little more heat, the particles and their bouncing interactions are harder to predict, and the system as a whole is more chaotic.
Notice how, when we were kids, they would tell us the 5- or 7-day weather forecast, and it was pretty accurate? And since then, our data and computer power has only gotten logarithmically more powerful. And yet now, they're loathe to tell us more than 3 days out, and even the forecast for later today is often wrong or at least inaccurate.
And the more extreme the incoming weather system, the wider the range between being, say, 25% off on the low side vs 25% off on the high side. When something big is coming, the possibilities are dangerously wide.
@kimlockhartga While it’s unpredictable, weather kind of always is. You’re right, you are smart, you will be fine.
I hear you. We could get anywhere from 4-8" of snow, followed by or mixed with rain or sleet, and possibly ending with ice. What?
The only certainty is that we'll have below freezing temperatures for days afterwards. Hibernating bears have the right idea.
@kimlockhartga I’ve been following it closely since my daughter is going to be in the thick of it, probably just a bit north of the ice line as it stands. I think part of the forecasting difficulty and hedging is that it’s an unusual, complicated, and powerful situation. Small changes will make a big difference with such powerful dynamics. It’s like if you were driving 150mph — any little twitch of the steering wheel will make a huge difference. (I have no way ever driven so fast)
@johnlehet @kimlockhartga
Ryan hasn't come out with his morning video yet, but it's interesting watching things change dramatically from one video to the next. He mentions "the AI" model sometimes and it really makes me curious exactly what that model is doing and how it's being used.
@johnlehet that's a good analogy. There are a lot of very finicky factors. And the temperatures are going to be so close to freezing that a degree one way or the other will be huge.
We can get snow at 37 degrees F, if the air temps aloft are cold enough. There are many factors that affect what kind of precip you get. How warm the ground temperature affects accumulation of snow or ice, and how much.
Temperature is only one factor, microclimes also affect.
Be prepared for the worst. Even then, reality can surprise.
The dangers come from ice accumulating on trees or power lines; from high winds; heavy wet snow -- it's the weight of snow or ice that collapse roofs, cause ice damming leading to leaks; it's extreme cold that freezes pipes and causes frostbite. Lots of snow can actually insulate and be beautiful and fun if you can stay put. I live in a snow belt. We hunker down. And drink hot chocolate with whipped cream.
@jerzone @johnlehet interesting. I knew he used a model, but I didn't know how it might differ. The first test will be whether the snow in Oklahoma is centered more around Tulsa, or more around Fort Smith, like his model suggests.
@Weirding_Is_Real All good advice. I worry that life will be lost in this.